Investigating trace gases in the Martian atmosphere using the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter Part 2: TauREM and PSG retrievals of ESA PSA NOMAD SO Channel Data George H. Cann , University College London, London, UK (george.cann.15@ucl.ac.uk). Ingo Waldmann, Dave Walton, Jan-Peter Muller, University College London, London, UK. Introduction: We present TauREx for Mars (TauREM) and Planetary Spectrum Generator (PSG) Villanueva et al. (2018) [1], Villanueva et al. (2022) [2], retrievals using the European Space Agency's (ESA) Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO) Nadir and Occultation for MArs Discovery (NOMAD) instrument, Solar Occultation (SO) channel Vandaele et al. (2015) [3], as a means of searching for H2O, HDO, O3, and 12CH4 and 13 CH4 in the Martian atmosphere. TauREM retrieval experiments are performed, including varying the number of live points used, performing wavenumber shifts to the model spectrum, and targeting spectra at varying tangent heights. Retrieval experiments, with and without applying AOTF, Blaze, and ILS functions are performed. TauREM and PSG retrieval results are interpreted and discussed. observed and an important reality check on the solution. Within TauREM NOMAD SO channel blaze function, acousto-optic tunable filter (AOTF) modules have been incorporated into the forward model. A set of geometry modules have been included in order to calculate the atmospheric layer line-of-sight (LOS) intersection points and corresponding path lengths. Martian absorption cross-sections have been generated using HITRAN 2016, Gordon et al. (2017) [11] molecular line-lists with ExoCross, Yurchenko et al. (2018) [12], accounting for expected Martian pressures and temperatures. Overall, this enables TauREM to produce simulated NOMAD SO channel transmittance spectra. All code and data associated with this research will be made open source to the community. Results: TauREM Nested Sampling Retrievals Method: TauREM is the Mars version of TauREx3[2], the 3rd generation of TauREx, Al-Refaie et al. (2019) [4] (Tau Retrieval for Exoplanets) extending from earlier development work, Cann et al. (2020) [5]. TauREx3 is a fully Bayesian atmospheric retrieval framework that uses Nested Sampling, Skilling (2006) [6] and Markov chain Monte Carlo Haario et al. (2006) [7] methods to sample the full likelihood space of possible solutions. This allows TauREM to produce marginalised and conditional posterior distributions of forward model parameters, which can be used to map correlations between parameters. Nested Sampling applies a general Monte Carlo analysis to periodically constrain ellipsoids that encompass spaces of highest likelihood. The method is used in calculating the Bayesian evidence, Z, a byproduct of which is the calculation of posterior distributions. Nested Sampling algorithms, Skilling (2006) [6], are frequently used in exoplanetary science for performing atmospheric retrievals, through Nestle, Barbary (2015) [8] and MultiNest, Feroz et al. (2009) [9], implementations however, their adoption by solar-system atmospheric science has yet to be exploited. Nested Sampling retrievals, unlike Optimal Estimation methods, Rodgers (2000) [10], capture the full likelihood space of forward model parameters (within their defined ranges) however, Optimal Estimation methods, used alongside Bayesian studies, in a comparative manner allows for the transition of different degrees of degeneracy to be A) Index: 174 B) Index: 142 C) Index: 86 D) Index: 50 Figure 1: TauREM Nested Sampling retrieval of NOMAD SO channel observation nmd-cal-sc-so20180922T091011-20180922T092445-a-i-134 indexes D) 50, C) 86, B) 142 and A) 174, showing the evolution of posterior distributions of log(HDO), log(H2O), log(O3), log(13CH4), and log(12CH4) over a range of tangent heights. This work presents the first comparison of TauREx against NASA’s Planetary Spectrum Generator (PSG) and the first use of TauREM and Nested Sampling retrievals of Martian trace gas species using NOMAD SO channel observations. Retrieval development experiments are presented including varying the number of live points used, performing wavenumber shifts to the model spectrum, and targeting spectra at varying tangent heights. Moreover, retrieval experiments, with and without, applying AOTF, Blaze, and ILS functions are performed, using models described in the literature, Neefs et al. (2015) [13], Thomas et al. (2018) [14], Liuzzi et al. (2019) [15], Liuzzi and Villanueva (2021) [16]. These development experiments are important in understanding how TauREM performs and are useful in refining the model. The results presented in this work should be deemed preliminary. While the results are novel, no claims are made of superiority of accuracy to the results derived from using other NOMAD SO forward models. Possible causes of the discrepancies between TauREM and the PSG are proposed to include: residuals (TR) of diffraction order 134, for morning, evening and combined observations, extending from Investigating trace gases in the Martian atmosphere using the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter Part 1: Analysis of ESA PSA NOMAD SO Channel Data. Figure 2: PSG forward models (red), gain (green), and transmittance data (blue) for all NOMAD SO channel bin 3 observations for nmd-cal-sc-so20180922T091011-20180922T092445-a-i-134, showing PSG forward models fitting remarkably well to the data. 1. The use of N2 instead of CO2 broadened absorption cross-sections. 2. Discrepancies in the calculated path lengths, especially at the impact layer. 3. Discrepancies in baseline and wavenumber shift corrections. 4. The influence of NOMAD SO AOTF, Blaze and ILS functions. All of the aforementioned points will be further investigated as part of a future development of TauREM. Results: PSG Optimal Estimation Retrievals In the absence of a validated forward model the PSG enables an established method of retrieving atmospheric parameters from transmittance spectra, comparing real data to PSG synthetically generated spectra, through employing Optimal Estimation, as described in Rodgers (2000) [10]. We present an example NOMAD SO channel diffraction order 134 spectrum is used with the PSG to retrieve the abundance of H2O and the results evaluated. The NOMAD SO forward model is compared against the observation, followed by a comparison against the derived Jacobians and an evaluation of the retrieved values. Progressing from the example spectrum vertical profiles are derived from a set of solar occultations, Figure 2, before finally performing experimental retrievals for H2O and CH4. These experimental retrievals are performed on the average transmittance Figure 3: Diffraction Order 134. Plot of the average transmittance residual, for 2418 solar occultation observations. No clear evidence of CH4 is observed, although evidence for the magnetic dipole of CO2, between 3016-3021 cm−1, Trokhimovskiy et al. (2020) [17] is. Figure 4: Experimental PSG retrieval of NOMAD SO average transmittance residuals for diffraction order 134, shown for “All H2O” in Figure 3, for H2O for morning, evening and combined terminator ob- servations from -5-70 km, showing abundance levels similar to those reported in the literature. Figure 4: Experimental PSG retrieval of NOMAD SO average TR for diffraction order 134 for CH4 for morning, evening and combined terminator observations from -5-20 km. Science Programme, STFC ST/P002528/1. We would also like to thank Geronimo Villanueva and Giuliano Liuzzi at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for their support in understanding and utilising the Planetary Spectrum Generator. We would also like to acknowledge the achievements of the NOMAD experiment. The NOMAD experiment is led by BIRA-IASB and assisted by Co-PI teams from Spain (IAA-CSIC), Italy (INAF-IAPS), and the United Kingdom (Open University). References: [1] Villanueva et al. (2018), Planetary Spectrum Generator: An accurate online radiative transfer suite for atmospheres, comets, small bodies and exoplanets, Volume 217, 2018, Pages 86-104. [2] Villanueva et al. (2022), Fundamentals of the Planetary Spectrum Generator 2022 Edition, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, January 2022. Conclusions: Analysis of the results indicates retrieved H2O profiles are consistent with the levels in published sources, Aoki et al. (2019) [18]. H2O vertical profiles are known to significantly vary with local time, season, location and the occurrence of dust storms, Aoki et al. (2019) [18], Alday et al. (2021) [19], Villanueva et al. (2015) [20], Villanueva et al. (2021) [21]. As such, the retrieved abundances from individual solar occultations may significantly differ from those shown in Figure 4. No clear evidence for CH4 is observed to the levels reported by Formisano et al. (2004) [22], Krasnopolsky et al. (2004) [23], Mumma et al. (2009) [24], Webster et al. (2015) [25], Webster et al. (2018) [26] is observed. However, the low abundance levels of CH4 retrieved do support the results of Korablev et al. (2019) [27], Knutsen et al. (2021) [28] and Montmessin et al. (2021) [29]. The results in this work should be deemed preliminary and more work should be performed in terms of error analysis. TauREM requires further development and validation, despite this TauREM and PSG retrievals, Nested Sampling and Optimal Estimation respectively, have been run on a set of NOMAD SO spectra. Within this work TauREM retrieval development experiments have been performed. 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