[2002 ], [2001 ], [2000 ], [1999 ], [1998 ], [1996 ] [.... ],
2002
Résumé. - Une étude de cas concernant la caractérisation en régime
dynamique d'un composant solaire de bâtiment nous a permis d'aborder
le problème général que soulève l'identification d'un modèle physique,
non linéaire, à nombre élevé de paramètres libres (ici dix). Le point de
vue retenu est que le modèle à construire et
à déterminer a trois objectifs couplés : apporter au concepteur une
compréhension suffisante du fonctionnement du composant afin de guider
ses tentatives d'améliorations, autoriser son intégration dans
un système plus vaste (modèle de bâtiment et d'organes de commande)
afin d'éprouver ses performances en situation réelle, et enfin guider
le choix de séquences expérimentales pour répondre aux mieux aux deux
objectifs précédents (cohérence globale). On décrit la méthode, sa
mise en oeuvre, et on donne les résultats obtenus en mettant en
évidence la cohérence explicite qui est établie entre la phase
expérimentale - effectuée dans un contexte de normalisation par un
centre technique - et la détermination proprement dite des grandeurs
physiques du modèle. Contrairement aux méthodes classiques de mesure
pour lesquelles on peut concevoir des expériences découplant
chacun des paramètres, la procédure choisie identifie d'un coup
l'ensemble des paramètres libres sur l'ensemble des données
expérimentales (identification inclusive). Un accent particulier
est mis sur l'analyse des erreurs de mesure dont l'importance est
manifeste, non seulement pour déterminer la précision du modèle
obtenu, mais également pour utiliser correctement l'ensemble de
l'information expérimentale pour la phase d'identification proprement
dite.
2001
A. de Lataillade, S. Blanco, Y. Clergent, J.L. Dufresne, M. El Hafi and R. Fournier
J.Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer,
Vol. 75, N.5, pp.529-538, Oct 2002
Abstract :
It is shown that, starting from any existing Monte Carlo algorithm for estimation of a physical quantity A, it is possible to implement a simple
additional procedure that simultaneously estimates the sensitivity of A to any problem parameter. The corresponding supplementary cost is
very low as no additional random sampling is required. The principle is presented on a formal basis and simple radiative transfer examples are
used for illustration.
Texte in
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" © 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted."
A. de Lataillade, J.L. Dufresne, M. El Hafi, V, Eymet, R. Fournier
J.Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer,
Vol. 74, N.5, pp.563-584, Jul 2002
Abstract :
A Monte Carlo approach to radiative transfer in participating media is
described and tested. It solves to a large extent the well known
problem of Monte Carlo simulation of optically thick absorption
configurations. The approach which is based on a net-exchange
formulation and on adapted optical path sampling procedures is
carefully designed to insure satisfactory convergence for all types of
optical thicknesses. The need for such adapted algorithms is mainly
related to the problem of gaseous line spectra representation in which
extremely large ranges of optical thicknesses may be simultaneously
encontered. The algorithm is tested against various band average
computations for simple geometries using the Malkmus statistical
narrow band model.
Texte in
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" © 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted."
Jean-Louis Dufresne, Catherine Gautier, Paul Ricchiazzi, Yves Fouquart
J. Atmospheric Science,
Vol. 59, N.12, pp.1959-1966, 15 June 2002
Abstract :
Scattering in the longwave domain has been neglected in the first
generation of radiative codes and is still neglected in most current
GCMs. Scattering in the longwave domain does not play any significant
role for clear sky conditions but recent works have shown that it is
not negligible for cloudy conditions. In this paper we highlight the
importance of scattering by mineral aerosols in the longwave domain
for a wide range of conditions commonly encountered during dust
events. We show that neglecting scattering may lead to an
underestimate of longwave aerosol forcing. This underestimate may
reach 50% of the longwave forcing at the top of atmosphere and 15%
at the surface for aerosol effective radius greater than a few tenths
of a micron. For an aerosol optical thickness of one and for typical
atmospheric conditions, the longwave forcing at the TOA increases to
8 W.m-2 when scattering effects are included. In contrast, the
heating rate inside the atmosphere is only slightly affected by
aerosol scattering: neglecting it leads to an underestimate by no more
than 10% of the cooling caused by aerosols.
Texte in
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"© 2002 American Meteorological Society. Further reproduction or
electronic distribution is not permitted."
Dufresne J-L, Friedlingstein P, Berthelot M, Bopp L, Ciais P,
L. Fairhead, H. LeTreut, P. Monfray
Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(10), 10.1029/2001GL013777, 23 May 2002
Abstract :
We use an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model coupled to land
and ocean carbon models to simulate the evolution of climate and
atmospheric CO2 from 1860 to 2100. Our model reproduces the
observed global mean temperature changes and the growth rate of
atmospheric CO2 for the period 1860-2000. For the future, we
simulate that the climate change due to CO2 increase will reduce
the land carbon uptake, leaving a larger fraction of anthropogenic
CO2 in the atmosphere. By 2100, we estimate that atmospheric CO2
will be 18% higher due to the climate change impact on the carbon
cycle. Such a positive feedback has also been found by
[Cox et al.,2000]. However, the amplitude of our feedback is
three times smaller than the one they simulated. We show that the
partitioning between carbon stored in the living biomass or in the
soil, and their respective sensitivity to increased CO2 and
climate change largely explain this discrepancy.
Texte in
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"© American Geophysical
Union. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted."
2000
Friedlingstein P, Bopp L, Ciais P, Dufresne JL, Fairhead L, LeTreut H,
Monfray P, Orr J,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
Vol.28, No.8, pp. 1543-1546, Apr 2001
Abstract :
Future climate change due to increased atmospheric CO2 may affect land
and ocean efficiency to absorb atmospheric CO2. Here, using climate
and carbon three-dimensional models forced by a 1% per year increase
in atmospheric CO2, we show that there is a positive feedback between
the climate system and the carbon cycle. Climate change reduces land
and ocean uptake of CO2, respectively by 54% and 35% at 4 x CO2. This
negative impact implies that for prescribed anthropogenic CO2
emissions, the atmospheric CO2 would be higher than the level reached
if climate change does not affect the carbon cycle. We estimate the
gain of this climate-carbon cycle feedback to be 10% at 2 x CO2 and
20% at 4 x CO2. This translates into a 15% higher mean temperature
increase.
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"© 2001 American Geophysical Union. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted."
1999
1998
J-L.Dufresne,P. Friedlingstein
Lettre n.11 du Programme International Géosphère
Biosphère-Programme Mondial de Recherches sur le
Climat (PIGB-PMRC)
Résumé :
Depuis plus d'un siècle, la concentration en CO2 atmosphérique mesurée
a augmenté de 25% passant de 280 ppmv en 1860 à 360 ppmv de nos
jours. Cette augmentation serait environ deux fois plus forte si tout
le CO2 émis par les activités humaines restaient dans l'atmosphère ;
environ la moitié de ce CO2 émis est capté par la biosphère et par
l'océan. Comment réagissent ces puits à un changement climatique?
1996
C. Laurent, H Le Treut, Z.X.Li, L. Fairhead and J.L. Dufresne
Notes du pôle de modélisation de l'IPSL,
N.8, 1998
Abstract :
Multidecadal numerical experiments have been realized at different
resolutions using the coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation
model developed at IPSL (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) in Paris.
The atmospheric LMD model and the oceanic OPA-LODYC model are coupled
without any flux adjustment. The mean simulated climate is stable and
differs from reality through a few well established systematic
errors. The variability simulated by the model at these different
resolutions is compared for various areas, and more specifically the
North Atlantic. A statistical method, the Multi-channel Singular
Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA), is used to detect sea surface temperature
oscillations at different time scales. Oscillations over the North
Atlantic display a well-known tripole feature, which seems to depend
primarily on the ocean resolution. The period of the oscillation (from
8 to 12 years) seems more sensitive to the atmospheric resolution.
( Global coupled simulations of climate change due to increased
atmospheric CO2 concentration )
P. Barthelet, S. Bony, P. Braconnot, A. Braun, D. Cariolle, E. Cohen-Solal, J.-L.
Dufresne, P. Delecluse, M. Deque, L. Fairhead, M.-A. Filiberti, M. Forichon, J.-Y.
Grandpeix, E. Guilyardi, M.-N. Houssais, M. Imbard, H. Le Treut, C. Levy, Z.X. Li,
G. Madec, P. Marquet, O. Marti, S. Planton, L. Terray, O. Thual, S. Valcke
Compte Rendu Académie des Sciences Paris, Série II a,
Vol.326, No.10, p.677-684, mai 1998
Abstract :
Two transient CO2 experiments using two coupled general circulation
models developped by the french GASTON group have been realized using
the same methodology . No flux corrections at the air-sea interface
were used in these experiments. The main features of the present
climate are reasonably well captured by both coupled models in the
control simulations, although the biases are not the same. The
transient CO2 simulations show a global warming, ranging between 1.6 C
and 2.0 C at the time of CO2 doubling(+70 years). These values, and
the main geographical characteristics of climate change are in
agreement with previous studies published by other research groups,
using either flux corrected or non-flux corrected models.
Résumé :
Deux expériences climatiques
d'augmentation de la teneur en CO2 atmosphérique, utilisant
deux modèles de circulation générale
couplés océan/glace/atmosphère
développés au sein du groupe GASTON, ont
été réalisées selon la même
méthodologie, sans correction de flux artificielle à
l'interface air-mer. Les simulations de contrôle reproduisent
convenablement les caractéristiques principales du climat
actuel, les biais des deux modèles couplés étant
cependant différents. Les simulations de scénario
d'augmentation de la teneur en CO2 atmosphérique (1% par an)
indiquent un réchauffement global de la température
à la surface du globe compris entre 1,6°C et 2,0°C au
moment du doublement de la teneur en CO2 (+70 ans). L'amplitude ainsi
que la répartition géographique du réchauffement
sont en accord avec les résultats d'autres groupes de recherche
utilisant des modèles à flux corrigés ou non.
...1990
Cherkaoui M, Dufresne JL, Fournier R, Grandpeix JY, Lahellec A;
ASME Journal of Heat Transfer,
Vol.118, No.2, pp. 401-407, May 1996
Abstract :
The Monte Carlo method is used for simulation of radiative
heat transfers in non-gray gases. The proposed procedure is
based on a Net-Exchange Formulation (NEF). Such a formulation
provides an efficient way of systematically fulfilling the
reciprocity principle, which avoids some of the major problems
usually associated with the Monte Carlo method~: numerical
efficiency becomes
independent of optical thickness, strongly non uniform grid
sizes can be used with no increase in computation times and
configurations with small temperature differences can be
addressed with very good accuracy.
The Exchange Monte Carlo Method (EMCM) is detailed for a one-dimensional slab
with diffusely or specularly reflecting surfaces.
( Sea-ice/ocean/atmosphere thermodynamic coupling )
Dufresne J.L, Grandpeix J.Y.
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique,
Note Interne 205, juin 1996
Abstract :
L'interface océan-glace de mer-atmosphère est
extrêmement hétérogène. Le modèle de glace-océan
du LODYC, utilisé par la comunauté "GASTON",
reproduit en partie cette hétérogénéité
(mailles mixtes contenant de l'océan libre et différents types de glace)
alors que les modèles d'atmosphère (Arpège, LMD 5)
ne la reproduisent pas ou peu (mailles
homogènes ou mailles mixtes océan libre - un seul type de glace). De plus,
aux hautes latitudes, une maille atmosphérique recouvre un nombre élevé de
mailles océaniques.
Nous avons développé un modèle de raccordement qui répartit de façon
différenciée les flux calculés par le modèle d'atmosphère
sur les diff'erents types de surface (océan libre ou
variétés de glace) en
fonction de leur distribution statistique (fraction surfacique) et
de leur caracteristiques individuelles (temp. de surface, albédo, etc...).
Ce modèle de raccordement garantit la conservation des
flux à l'interface.
Dans cette note, nous abordons tout d'abord le problème de la stabilité
numérique du raccordement
glace-atmosphère, puis présentons le modèle de raccordement développé.
Cherkaoui M., Dufresne J.L., Fournier R. , Grandpeix J.Y. , Lahellec A.
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique,
Internal Report 204, Jun 1996
Abstract :
Additional numerical results to the paper of
(Cherkaoui et al., 1996)
( Inclusive identification procedure for a thermal system dynamical
characterization. Case study : an air solar collector wall componenet. )
Dufresne, J.L., Lahellec, A., Chounet L.M.,
Revue de Physique Appliquée,
Vol.25, No.11, p. 1139-1160, Nov. 1990
Abstract. - The dynamical characterisation of a solar component -
taken as a case study - introduced us to the general problem of non
linear multiparametric model identification (10 parameters in our
case). The elaboration of such a model has three goals : first, it has
to allow the designer to understand and improve his components ; then
it can be integrated in a global'system model (the building and
control devices) for real performances study ; and finally, it is a
guidance for the monitoring process in the purpose of fulfilling the
two previous objectives (global coherence). The method and its
implementation are described, and the results obtained for our case
study given ; we set a particular emphasis on the embedded coherence
between the monitoring stage - performed in a "Technical Center" in
the context of a normalisation procedure - and the physical model
parameters identification. In opposition to classical measurement
operation which allow different experiments to decouple each
parameter, the described method determines at once the whole set of
parameters versus the whole set of available experimental data
(inclusive identification). We then display a few procedure intrinsic
coherence tests as well as the accuracy obtained on the determined
parameters. One of the critical point of the procedure is the
measurement error analysis, because of its importance not only for the
resulting model accuracy, but as an essential information for a proper
use of the experimental data in the identification procedure itself.
(Experimental procedure for dynamic characterisation of a thermal component.
Example : wall-air solar collecter model identification)
Dufresne, J.L., Chounet L.M., Picard D., Gaillard P., Noppe J.M.,
Revue Générale de Thermique,
Vol.29, No.339, pp. 135-151, mars 1990
Résumé. -
Presentation d' une procedure experimentale d'identification des
modeles permettant de caracteriser precisement en regime dynamique des
composants physiquement complexes. Application a l'etude d' un
mur-capteur solaire a air. Description de l'installation experimentale
Chounet L.M., Dufresne, J.L., Franchisseur R., Lahellec, A.,
Rego-Texeira A.,
Revue Générale de Thermique,
Vol.28, No.335-336, p. 700-711, nov-dec 1989
Résumé. -
L'evaluation d'operations de rehabilitation requiert du point de vue
energetique un diagnostic initial correct et un outil de prevision
suffisamment fiable. Nous presentons cet ensemble methodologique sur
le suivi d'une operation prototype de renovation d'une cite OPHLM de
593 logements de la region parisienne. Nous montrons qu'un code de
calcul comme CALECO-DOE2, tres repandu est tout a fait adapte a ce
type d'analyse. Une analyse de credibilite de l'ensemble de la
demarche est resumee. Les conclusions portent sur les apports
methodologiques de notre travail et leurs limites, ainsi que sur le
developpement souhaitable des outils de modelisation
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